Election Betting on Prediction Markets, Special Education, Breastmilk Storage

[00:01] Prediction markets take plenty of bets on the outcome of elections. Some bettors might be cheating. Campaign staffers are awfully tempted to turn their insider knowledge into money. I'm Scott Simon. I'm Aisha Roscoe, and this is Up First from NPR News. [00:18] you [00:18] Well, Calci and other prediction markets try to police themselves and keep the government out of their business. And as the Trump administration dismantles the Department of Education, people with disabilities and their families ask what will happen to special education. And finally, mothers have been told for years to throw out any breast milk left over in a bottle after feeding. Some influencers disagree. [00:48] again. [00:53] Bye. [01:00] This message comes from Capital One with the Venture X Card. [01:04] Earn unlimited double miles, a $300 annual Capital One travel credit, and access to airport lounges. Capital One. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. Details at CapitalOne.com. [01:16] This message comes from NPR sponsor Carvana. Carvana makes car buying easy. 100% online. Prices down to the penny delivered to your door. Why make car buying hard when it could be easy? Visit Carvana.com today. Terms may apply. [01:31] This message comes from BetterHelp. People talk about mental health more openly now, but asking for help can still feel hard. BetterHelp's 2026 State of Stigma Report surveyed 2,000 Americans and found that 85% believe getting support is wise, yet 74% say society discourages people from doing so. Don't let stigma stand in the way of support. Start therapy with BetterHelp. Visit betterhelp.com slash NPR.

[02:00] Americans have bet more than a billion dollars on elections so far. Some of those traders are using insider information. The largest prediction market, Cauchy, says it's trying to stop political insiders from profiting with a new program. NPR's Luke Garrett joins us. Luke, thanks for being with us. Good morning. Thanks for having me. A few months back, you reported that some campaign staffers made thousands of dollars in insider trades. So what do we know? [02:30] trying to bet on their own candidates. And remember, this is during an active midterm election year. These are people who are on campaign payrolls and are trying to profit on their own races. We know this because CalSheep has a new surveillance program that uses federal election commission data to track these staffers. So far, the prediction market says it has successfully blocked dozens of campaign staffers from making these potential insider trades. How does the program work? So basically, CalSheep finds the names of staffers listed in these FEC disclosures, [03:00] on their own prediction market. Here's how the company's head of enforcement and legal counsel, Robert DeNalt, explained it. If we're able to identify a potential match, we have markets that are associated with each of the campaigns that are flagged, and those individuals would be prevented from placing trades on those markets. So in theory, Scott, this tracking program blocks any bet made by a campaign staffer listed in this FEC data. The board of the holds. There are a few.

[03:30] trade on an election they were involved in. This staffer shared their records of their CalShi bet on the condition of remaining anonymous for fear for future employment. But beyond this one case, there are also some serious structural issues in CalShi's monitoring program. Two former FEC commissioners told me this program won't capture everyone who has insider information on a campaign. Think volunteers, lawyers, pollsters, and even subcontractors. Here's former FEC chair Sean Cooksey. [04:00] some picture about who is working on a particular campaign. It is by no means a complete one. But Cooksey says this program is a step in the right direction, and he applauded the company for it. Back at CalShea, Denald acknowledged that no system is airtight and that they hoped, you know, to make it more effective. CalShea's top competitor, Polymarket, declined an interview request for this story. Polymarket did send a statement saying they investigate all possible [04:30] themselves [04:31] Is the government doing anything? So the Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees and regulates prediction markets. Under the Trump administration, the CFTC has done little to regulate these new financial markets, largely leaving that work to the companies themselves. Trump-appointed CFTC chairman Michael Selig has even defended prediction markets against dozens of lawsuits from states seeking to really rein in these markets. But two former CFTC commissioners I've spoken with say current law and regulation hasn't kept up with prediction markets.

[05:01] unsettled legal landscape could make it easier, you know, for insider traders to get away with it. [05:06] Does Congress have a role here? Yes. So, you know, lawmakers from both parties have said the CFTC and its outdated rules aren't fit to regulate these new markets. This year alone, 21 pieces of legislation have been introduced, though none of them have really gained much momentum. [05:22] And here's Luke Garrett. Thanks so much for being with us. You bet. [05:33] Advocates for students with disabilities are worried about changes coming to the Department of Education, specifically a plan to transfer the Special Education Office to the Department of Health and Human Services. In a private call earlier this week, Education Department officials tried to reassure the disability community that students would not be affected, but those efforts seem to have failed. [06:03] is here to share what she learned. Thanks for joining us. [06:06] Hi, Scott. Thank you. Begin by reminding us where things stand with the Education Department. The Trump administration has, of course, been trying to dismantle it. Absolutely. So the department has already shared plans to move more than a dozen of its offices to other agencies as part of its goal to shrink itself. One of the key things the department does is hold schools and states accountable for getting millions of kids with disabilities the services they need to get a quality education.

[06:36] Education Act. And now the department is moving its office for special education to HHS. That change was the focus of the call with advocates earlier this week. I gather we've known for a few weeks this change was coming. What new information came out of the call? Yeah, so a little context. Advocates have been saying it would be illegal for the Ed Department to move oversight of special education to another agency. Kelly Rogers, who oversees special ed at the department, said this [07:06] Health and Human Services is not taking over IDEA. [07:10] Period. [07:11] We are not transitioning IDEA and special education to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. [07:17] But then, Scott, in the same breath, Rogers said the staff who actually do the work of supporting state and local school leaders, those workers are going to HHS. But Rogers says she will continue to oversee them from her perch at the ed department. Let me follow up because this is confusing. On the one hand, they're saying that IDEA stays at the ed department. Rogers stays at the ed department. But a lot of the staff who do the work are moving to another department. [07:46] How would those changes affect students? Yeah, Scott, I asked Denise Marshall, who leads the Council for Parent Advocates and Attorneys, that same question. She was on the call and said this move adds bureaucracy and more confusion for students with disabilities. I just don't feel like we got any more clarity on a practical level about who to call, who will do the work, how do the departments interface, how do we ensure equity for students,

[08:16] still unclear. So what Marshall and other advocates did tell me is that to them, this appears to be a workaround for the Department of Education to keep meeting legal requirements. Like, by keeping Kelly Rogers at the Department of Ed, they can say, look, IDA is still technically at the Education Department, like the law says it has to be, and we're only moving staff to another building. It sounds like the people who walked away from this call are very concerned. Do we know how the Education Department has responded? [08:46] followed up with the department by email, including about the concern that this adds layers of bureaucracy for students with disabilities. Savannah Newhouse, their press secretary, firmly denied that. She said advocates have nothing to fear and said, quote, What our partnership with HHS does is place these important federal responsibilities in a better positioned agency and draw on HHS's expertise. And Scott, advocates told me they're really hoping Congress steps in and stops these changes. [09:16] that propose officially breaking up the Education Department. And Bers-Jernaki Mehta, thanks so much. Thank you. [09:30] For years in the U.S., the guidance around breast milk in a bottle has been pretty clear. [09:35] Toss any leftovers two hours after feeding a baby. But recently on social media, some parenting influencers have been questioning that advice. Here to explain the science of breast milk storage is NPR health correspondent Maria Godoy. Welcome. Thank you, Aisha. So, Maria, what are the risks of reusing a leftover bottle of breast milk? You know, the main concern is bacterial contamination that could potentially make a baby sick.

[10:05] feeds from a bottle, bacteria from their mouth can get into the bottle, and then it'll continue to multiply. And the idea is that the longer the bottle sits, the more the bacteria will grow. And then there are also bacteria that can be introduced at any point during the process. And that's why guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other groups recommend that you always wash your hands before pumping or handling breast milk, and you know, clean your pump parts after every use. And once you feed the breast milk to the baby, if there's any leftover in the [10:35] give it to the baby up to two hours later, and then toss it out to be safe. But you know, pumping is really hard work. It's another job. And you know, the little bit that I did, I did not like it. Oh no, it's a lot. You know, it takes a lot of time and effort to pump and clean, and it can be emotionally and physically exhausting. So the idea of throwing it away is kind of crushing for some moms, which is why I think a new unpublished study from Hanover [11:05] has gotten a lot of attention in parenting circles and a lot of pushback, too. Well, what did the study find exactly? Well, so researchers recruited parents to feed their babies a bottle of breast milk, and then they tested the microbes in the milk before it was fed to the baby, and then at various time points after. And they found there wasn't really any significant bacterial growth in the milk from the time the baby finished eating up to eight hours later. [11:31] Well, I mean, that sounds like good news. So why the pushback? Well, the study hasn't gone through peer review yet, and the sample size was small, only 17 infants who drank breast milk. But some parenting influencers basically ran with it and said, yeah, go ahead and ignore the guidelines. Don't toss that milk. I spoke to Jennifer Yorkovich. She's a breastfeeding researcher at UNC Chapel Hill. And here's what she said.

[11:53] Human milk has a lot of antibacterial properties or anti-spoilage properties, so it doesn't surprise me at all. It's a promising finding. It's not enough to change a guideline. She says a handful of similar studies in different parts of the world have also found leftover breast milk shows little bacterial growth over several hours, but all of them have been super small. Yorkovich says we really need a lot more research into this issue, but there's just not much funding for that. [12:23] She's a researcher with NC State who did one of those small studies on leftover breast milk. And she says that guidance needs to err on the side of being conservative because there are so many different factors involved. How old is your baby? How healthy is your baby? How long was the milk stored? How well did... [12:40] The pump parts cleaned. You know, with so many variables, she says, it just makes sense to play it safe and toss that milk after two hours. So what's the takeaway for parents? A few things. For one, I think, you know, don't listen to just whatever you hear on social media. And that goes for a lot of things. But also, as Vogelman told me, pumping is demanding. So just do the best you can to follow the CDC guidelines. But again, breast milk does have antimicrobial properties. So if you mess up, give yourself some grace. [13:10] That's NPR's Maria Godoy. Thank you so much. My pleasure.

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