Trump’s 4th Threesome

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[01:41] Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Happy Fourth. We decided to record a little early ahead of the long weekend. Long week for me. I'm heading to Maine for vacation to see if I can get some of those Harris Collins voters back on side. [01:59] You know, you pod boys saying nice things about Plattner. I'm just going to try to go to Maine and get it done myself, you know? If there's any group we have a lot of sway with, it is... [02:09] older women Susan Collins voters in Maine. I mean, I'm telling you, I'm going to where I'm going. That is the place. That's right. I understand. Emily's been on the ground for weeks. I know. She's been trying to improve their numbers. I know. I'm bringing in reinforcements. What are you guys up to for the fourth? Are you sticking around? We're sticking around. We're having a bunch of people over. We're very chill fourth. Very patriotic, but chill fourth. You're not going to check out the California exhibit at the Great State Fair in D.C. and listen to Trump's speech? [02:35] We are going to listen to Trump's speech. We're going to gather everyone around the TV. We're going to watch it together as a family, as anyone who loves America would do. Perfect. Perfect. The kids will always remember how they spent the America's 250 with their half-century-old dad. [02:52] I heard that. I heard that's what your kids are calling you. That's what Kylie keeps saying to me. She's like, Dad, you're now a half-a-century-old. That is brutal. That hit me hard. [03:02] Mainly because I'm only a couple years away. Well, trust me, I will make sure. [03:08] that your children call you that century in five years or whatever it is. Yeah, you could probably get Charlie going on that now. All right, we got some news to cover before we take off for the break. Trump making $2 billion since taking office. The right-wing freakout over birthright citizenship. More progressive primary wins in Colorado. And you and I are going to nerd the hell out over some brand new New York Times polls on all the biggest Senate races.

[03:31] But first, let's talk about how our president is celebrating America's 250th birthday by jumping on his brand new Qatari palace in the sky, formerly known as Air Force One, which touched down in the Dakotas for the opening of Teddy Roosevelt's presidential library and a firework show at Mount Rushmore, even though people there were worried it might start a wildfire. [04:01] He's calling... [04:02] Quote, the most spectacular Trump rally of them all, which will reportedly include over 800,000 fireworks in an attempt to set the Guinness World Record. [04:13] Trump seems to be going for another record as well. He said, quote, it's going to be approximately 107 degrees out and I'm going to make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything. [04:27] Yeah. That is the American spirit. That is the American spirit. This is apparently why the fireworks aren't starting until after... [04:33] 11 p.m. Eastern. [04:36] Very cool. Very considerate. Trump's really been on one this week. Here he is talking about... [04:42] and to Teddy Roosevelt at the opening of the museum this week. Theodore Roosevelt, he had great passion. The colonel, they called him, was an American man or... [04:55] It was really a... [04:56] A great he-man. They say it was 40 pounds of muscle. I don't know how the hell that happened.

[05:01] Thank you. [05:02] They didn't have modern day drugs. Of course, the modern day drugs don't do that either, do they? [05:07] In fact, they actually take away the muscle. That's not good. The sun was brave. It's genetics. It's like the racehorse theory. They're the only... [05:15] Father and Son pair to receive our nation's [05:18] highest [05:20] Military award for courage above and beyond now as I see my two beautiful sons sitting there I think I'm going to give one to myself one to them and we'll have a threesome, okay? I even had a conversation with you [05:32] Theodore Roosevelt, I said, what did you think about the Panama Canal? Do you consider that your greatest achievement? How do you feel? [05:40] about the fact [05:42] that the Democrats gave the Panama Canal away to Panama for one dollar. [06:01] We are making a little bit of a tour. [06:20] What do you think? [06:22] It just... [06:23] Doesn't seem to me like Trump fully understands what's happening in the conversation with the AI, Teddy Roosevelt. No, I don't know. Does he think he's talking to Teddy Roosevelt? [06:31] Does he understand how an AI chatbot hologram works? Yeah, I'm sure he understands. Could we be doing more of this?

[06:37] Should Democrats have an AI Ronald Reagan at our convention to talk about how Trump is not a Republican? [06:45] I mean, there are all kinds of things you do. Yeah, Trump was deep in the weeds on the executive order to lift the export controls on Fable and Mythos, the Claude LLMs. He's deep in the weeds there because he has a lot of thoughts on those models. So I'm sure he understood. Speaking of AI, did you see this morning that OpenAI offered the U.S. government? [07:05] a 5% stake in the company? Yes. You know, that's also a, an idea on the left. [07:10] By the way, [07:11] that some have proposed. I believe Roe, Kana, has proposed that. Now, the challenge is, and Bernie has proposed that too, the idea is the government gets a stake of it, and then the government distributes, like on the upside of these AI companies, the government distributes that to people as like an oil royalty for our age. Of course, the challenge is what happens when Donald Trump is in charge or another Donald Trump is in charge, right? You'd want to have that [07:41] president who's into redistribution. Well, you'd have to write a law that... [07:47] Like the oil royalties in Alaska. [07:52] All this is neither here nor there. Trump's talking to A.I. Teddy Roosevelt, talking about threesomes with his kids. [07:59] Do you think he caught that? Do you think afterwards someone was like, hey, people are laughing because you did talk – because the word threesome usually doesn't just mean you and your sons having medals.

[08:10] Yeah. I mean I suspect that Trump, as someone who's lived the life he's lived, is very familiar with threesomes. [08:17] he's that generous? Maybe he, maybe, I mean, I, I don't know. I, I think that, I think three, three, a sign of selfishness is my guess. [08:29] Also, poor Baron. [08:35] I know it didn't make the familial threesome. [08:40] That kid caught a lucky break, I guess. Larger question for you. How do you think all these Trump organized America 250 events are landing with people who aren't MAGA fans or whiny America hating libs like us? I think most people are seeing all this. [08:58] I kind of presume they're not seeing it. It's just it's not really breaking through in any way, shape, or form. None of it's exciting. None of it's interesting. [09:06] People are pretty busy. They have a million options for how to spend their limited attention. To the extent they hear anything, Trump has made it all political. And so there's a whole group of people. People like us will either make fun of it or – [09:20] Or ignore it. And then the people who don't really care about politics or don't actively avoid politics will immediately turn away from like you can see a world potentially where a different president does something different that is more in the theoretical spirit of America that is more bipartisan. [09:35] You know, you could see a world where a Democratic president or even a different Republican president who comes from a different Republican Party in an alternative universe has on stage.

[09:45] The Obamas, the Bidens, the Clintons, the Bushes, and we're basically going to have a library opening. But I went back and looked a lot at what happened in 1976, and so much of it – A, it happened in an election year, which is notable, but also just so much of the attention to it also had a lot to do with the fact that – [10:04] We lived in a world where there were three TV station channels and you had to watch it. And so you couldn't, it just, it was like beamed into the brains of the American people. People did get kind of involved. Like I saw a whole thing about how people decorated all their, painted all the fire hydrants, red, white, and blue. Some of them turned into like very funny, like Abe Lincoln fire hydrants and things like that. But just in this day and age, it's like, it's hard to get people's attention like that. And Trump is not trying to actually do that. He's trying to make it about himself. And that was doomed to fail. Yeah. The attention. [10:30] of the country is pretty much... World Cup is America. The 250th celebration was last night in the World Cup game, where everyone came together and now wants to throw... [10:42] tea in the pool of the referee who gave us the red card? He has to be the appropriate colonial response. Find his pool, just dump it with, dump some tea in it. Yeah, no, I've been really into some of, like, the, you know, opinion pieces on this. I was, like, watching that. Netflix has a good doc, The American Experiment, that I was... Have you been watching that? I was watching that. I'm a sucker for, like, Revolutionary War history. [11:07] And, but then I was, like, thinking about it a lot. [11:12] I'm like, really? This is just a small circle of people talking to each other who already talked to each other on Substack and other places. Hey, don't do not knock that. Do not knock a small circle. People talk to each other. Atlantic readers and New York Times readers and podcasts. I'm like, it is, you know, the people trying to get most of the country to pay attention to the 250th anniversary seems like a tall order when Donald Trump is president and everything else is going on.

[11:42] a small group of people talking to each other, you're going to stop doing all things. Well, I would talk to people about other issues. Okay, fair enough. It's like, what am I trying to convince people of that this is what America is really about? Yeah, we're all on board. All right. [11:54] Few other Trump items to discuss. Lest you think he's trying to make this anniversary all about himself... [11:59] Trump is reportedly considering an idea described as 250 pardons for 250 years. That's how a person close to the White House described it to The Atlantic in an effort to, quote, reinforce an image he has long sought to cultivate. [12:15] Trump the merciful. Yeah, he's really been working hard on that. I don't know how much progress he's made. The piece goes on to say, quote, the prospect of a mass pardon has set off an international frenzy of lobbying and deal making in which even slight proximity to the president can be monetized. [12:45] 1.4 billion of that coming from his family's cryptocurrency business slash Ponzi scheme. What better way for a president to celebrate America's 250th than by using his office to make $2 billion off a Ponzi scheme and then also pardon all of his rich criminal friends. I must have missed the announcement from the Republican Congress that they will be launching impeachment hearings over this. Did you catch it? No, I must have missed it too. I was so busy.

[13:15] taking in the sights of the Great American State Fair that I might have missed this. The 250 pardons thing is so funny because there's a line in the story which says – I'm going to read it here. One advisor said there had been polling that suggested a mass pardon could benefit the president. I caught that. I caught that. [13:35] Where do you know how do you think that's yes you know who commissioned that poll. [13:40] A bunch of criminals or a bunch of people making money off the criminals? Like that's who commissioned that poll. There is no poll that suggests a mass pardoned [13:48] Frankly, anyone like pardons can be good. Commuting people's sentences who were have unfair drug sentences. All the other. Like there's good use of the pardon power. [13:56] Even that is never popular. [13:57] A mass pardon is not popular. It's an insane thing. It's something that someone told Trump in order to get him to pardon people that has hired this advisor to do. I was honestly trying to think of how the question would be worded to get a good result. And it would be like, do you think the president should reduce the sentences of people who've been unfairly imprisoned by a weaponized justice? Wrongly convicted. Yeah. Are you would you approve or disapprove of the president releasing the. [14:26] People, innocent people from prison like that. Yes, that is probably. Yeah, that probably shows that it was going to give him a little boost. Now, on the corruption thing, it is. [14:36] I mean the amount of money Trump's made is – [14:39] truly unbelievable. And the thing that is makes it so much worse than it could possibly be. And it's hard to imagine it could be worse than that is it's not like Trump just,

[14:48] picked a bunch of smart stocks or even got inside information on inside access to some IPO that took off or even did some sweetheart real estate deals. Which he was trying to say yesterday when asked about it. He was like, well, everyone's profiting because the S&P is up. It's like, no, that's not what's happening. [15:03] Yeah, no, that's not exactly what happened there. And most of his money is not. He does do a lot of day trading. [15:08] What is most of the money here is from the crypto money. [15:12] And that is a very specific Ponzi scheme run against his most loyal supporters. He took money. He weaponized their adoration for him and their trust in him, got them to buy bogus crypto coins, essentially pulled the rug out from underneath them and sold a chunk of the company to an Emirati fund, perhaps in exchange for selling America's most valuable technology. [15:40] to the Emiratis. The story about this in the Times, as you said, yeah, the cryptocurrency coin created by World Liberty Financial has sunk to less than six cents, a more than 80% drop from its peak, generating enormous losses for investors who bought it [15:55] at a higher price. And Trump made money on all – it's not just the value of the coin. He also was making money off the sale of all the coins as well. Yeah, just a total grift. I mean what do you think about this? Like it's – I mentioned the Republican Congress because – [16:10] And, you know, we're going to talk about this in a bit with the polls, but it's like, yeah, people think that Trump is corrupt message delivered. And but we're not trying to beat Trump in the midterms. We are trying to beat the Republican Congress. And these people could do something about it. They could be like, hey, the president is profiting off a Ponzi scheme while in office. There's all these kinds of corrupt dealings going on. There's all kinds of foreign entanglements, as you mentioned, and potentially foreign corruption, foreign influence that he's working on.

[16:40] Nothing. I mean, Tommy and I talked about this a little bit in OnlyFriends yesterday, but I think the corruption stuff is already – it's already – [16:48] Pricing to the baseline here in two ways. One, people think Trump always believed Trump was corrupt in some way, type of form. And they also think most politicians are corrupt. Trump just dips his beak a little deeper than everyone else. But he he is suffering from the full weight of all of these things. [17:03] I mean, his approval rating is at 37%. Like... [17:06] How much lower do we expect it to go? And is it just because of the corruption? No. Is there one more piece of corruption that's going to come out that's going to drive them to 32%? [17:14] No, but the way I think about all these things is they are all affordability related. [17:19] This is just all the shit he's doing that's not helping you. And that stuff hit different when prices were low and it's much worse for Trump when prices are high. And so people do care, maybe not as much as we want them to care, but – [17:34] It does hurt him politically. It absolutely does. And we're already seeing that in the polls. No, my point is that we've got to get some of that stink on the Republican Congress. Yeah, I mean, they're – yes, yes. And you see that in – Because you're right. No, I completely agree with everything you said. We can't – [17:48] We did it. People know that he's a bad president. You look poll after poll after poll after poll like he is losing that argument. But he is also a lame duck president who is not on the ballot this November. Yeah. And there's a question about whether that is putting the stink. We'll talk about this in the next section. Whether that's putting the stink on the Republicans or taking the stink off the Democrats is the best route to doing that. Right. Plenty of or more like a combination of the two. Plenty of stink to go around.

[18:18] Last month, the jobs numbers came out way below expectations. And the last two months that they were celebrating, of course, have been revised down. So not a great economy unless you're Donald Trump and you have a crypto scheme that you're profiting off of. Even the Wall Street Journal, by the way, you see, there's a Wall Street Journal editorial. How did I miss this? About Donald Trump's corruption, which is notable because I know you and Tommy talked about [18:43] The New York Post did an editorial just criticizing Trump's corruption and now Wall Street Journal. So all the Murdoch properties, except for Fox. They even said yowzers, yowzers, the Wall Street Journal said. The main difference between Hunter Biden's foreign dealings and the Trump projects is that the Trumps are brazenly open about theirs. But there will be political costs for Republicans. If Democrats take back the House or Senate, they will have a field day probing the Trump family deals. [19:13] 28, this will feed the left's class warfare and narrative that billionaire oligarchs are getting rich off government. [19:19] Will it feed that narrative? I wonder why. Probably because it's a true narrative. That's right. Yes. Would it tell people what's happening? Yes, that's what would happen. Anyway, that's from your liberal friends at the Wall Street Journal. [19:38] Pod Save America is brought to you by Quince. When summer finally arrives, you don't want to spend precious time agonizing over what to wear. You want to have great comfortable clothes to wear in the summer when it's hot. You know, that's why you got to keep coming back to Quince. They focus on really well-made clothes that will become like everyday staples that you use all the time. Quince is 100% European linen pants and shirts are breathable, easy to throw on in the summer upgrade your rotation needs.

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[21:51] www.drinkag1.com to get free AG1 traveling case with seven free AG1 travel packs in your welcome kit with your first AG1 subscription order while supplies last. That's www.drinkag1.com slash crooked. [22:07] We should also discuss the absolute freakout in MAGA world over the Supreme Court's decision to affirm the right to citizenship that comes with being born in the United States, as granted by the 14th Amendment. [22:18] to the Constitution after slavery was abolished more than 150 years ago. The court struck down Trump's effort to end birthright citizenship via executive order. [22:28] But the president's reaction to this was... [22:30] Pretty mild compared to Trump allies like The Daily Wire's Matt Walsh, who said that America's committing suicide and the fact that his children are having their birthright destroyed, quote, fills me with rage so deep I can't describe it. Sean Davis, co-founder of The Federalist, tweeted out some potential remedies that include denying entry to the U.S. to all female foreigners, including, [22:53] all pregnant women, and requiring sterilization of all foreign visitors prior to entry. And you know who says he's looking into these ideas? [23:04] Stephen Miller, who has been absolutely hysterical about this. He's talking about national suicide, national self-obliteration, and, quote, a deep knife wound in the heart of the American Republic. [23:19] All right. What do you make of the reaction? And specifically, what do you make of Stephen Miller and other White House officials considering this crackdown on pregnant women entering the country? I can't believe I had to say those words.

[23:30] These people are just... [23:33] disgusting, opportunistic, delusional ghouls. Like it is, it's so, it is, [23:41] It's just so stupid and it is so – like just think about this, right? In 2018, there is some political – in their – I try to like sometimes try to put myself in their heads, pretend that they are quasi-rational political actors. Like I think Stephen Miller is doing this from a just purely sincere, deeply held racial animus. 100%. I think other people in the MAGA world are looking at this – [24:03] While they certainly share some of that racial animus, they are also looking at this politically and in their mind. I think I think Sean Davis and Matt Walsh are absolutely genuine. Yeah, yeah, yeah, for sure. For sure. But, you know, I think they look at this and say, [24:16] We're getting killed on affordability, all these other issues. What is the one issue where Trump is not 20,000 leagues underwater? And that is border security. [24:24] And so can we move the conversation back to border security? Now, the flaw in this plan is that in 2018, when Republicans were getting ready to lose the midterms, they concocted a fake story about a caravan of MS-13 members marching. [24:38] To America. And the 2026 version of that is a bunch of pregnant with tourists. It's just so fucking it's it's it's the grossest thing. Yeah, it's just it's so stupid. It's just so it's also so stupid. [24:52] Like, dude, you really – I mean, it's just so painfully dumb. [24:57] And in gross, it's all dumb and gross, which I guess is kind of the theme of the entire area in which we're living. But the Center for Immigration Studies, which is the far right.

[25:09] uh, immigration organization. Um, they, uh, cause their, their whole argument here, Trump's argument, Miller's argument is this like birth tourism, right? That's that people are coming here, uh, illegally and then they're having kids so they can be American citizens. And then, you know, uh, I guess then the whole country, uh, falls apart. Um, but even they say that, um, this is, uh, they, they, they put birth tourism at roughly 20,000 cases a year. Um, [25:38] There were about 3.61 million births in the United States every year. So that is well under 1%. And that number, the 20,000, [25:47] is contested by just about everyone because this is a right-wing organization. Some people think it's far, far less, like a couple thousand. But even if you go by their arguments, it is just, again, much like their voter fraud shit, completely made-up argument. It is the danger, like... [26:04] It seems absurd to us. The danger of it. [26:07] is you take the most [26:10] egregious, outlandish, rarest, if possibly non-existent example, and you use it to take down an entire system. Like this is Ronald Reagan and the welfare queens all over again, where this is a way to try to undo the [26:23] Birthright citizenship, which, as you and I talked about on YouTube after the hearing, [26:27] you know, you have a potential Supreme Court majority or near majority at this point who would suggest that that can be done statutorily. And so you kind of understand, like, I understand the short term political argument there. The longer term thing is to try to make people think this is something that's really happening when it's not actually happening. Yeah. And then the flip side of that, from picking the most egregious example, is basically what John Roberts argued

[26:57] the word domicile should mean where the parents have allegiance to. And if the parents were born in some other country and have allegiance to that country and owe something to that country, then the child shouldn't be a U.S. citizen. And Roberts was like, okay, well, what about foreign nationals who are legal permanent residents in this country? [27:27] you're a legal permanent resident in this country and you're still a citizen of another country, you do have some [27:33] allegiance to that other country and you are still to pay some taxes to that other country. And so now we're saying that all foreign born people in this country who have children here, those children are American citizens. And then at that point, who gets to decide who's a citizen? Trump. Trump gets Trump and Stephen Miller get to decide who's a citizen. They get that power. The government gets to decide. That's their argument. And that is. And I think that is the argument that most people in this country would not get behind, that your citizenship is determined [28:03] by where your parents are from, but by Donald Trump and Stephen Miller. [28:07] Yeah, that's right. All right. Let's talk about what's happening with the people who are trying to bounce these jokers out of office. On Tuesday, Colorado held its primaries and once again, progressive candidates won the day in the first district, which is basically the heart of Metro Denver.

[28:37] letter she wrote about what she saw as a crackdown on criticism of Israel. How did she manage to beat an entrenched incumbent like Diana DeGette? In part because of exchanges like this from a debate in early June. And when we have that opportunity again, we have to pass Medicare for All, cancel all medical debt and break up big medicine to drive back competition in the healthcare industry. [29:07] presidential election who tries to leave blame on our most vulnerable communities for a rigged system, it will bring hollow to the voters. Because as a party, we can point to what we accomplished in achieving health care for all and say, this is [29:20] is what Democrats achieved for working people. This is how we delivered. Pretty good. Very good. It's not just policy where Kyrus has managed to draw a sharp distinction. Here's a question she got in a local news interview a week ago about an ad she reposted from a super PAC supporting her. I believe that the ad also suggested that centrist Democrats suck shit. Is that your belief as well? Okay. [29:41] just hearing him just hearing the interviewer say that was enjoyable because of the makeup of the district Kyrus is almost certainly to win the general election [29:54] And she has said she won't vote for Hakeem Jeffries for speaker if he takes corporate PAC money. In the primary for the state's 8th district, northeast of Denver, progressive state representative Manny Routenel defeated a more moderate Democrat by 28 points. He will take on vulnerable Republican Gabe Evans, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country, a big front line race.

[30:24] points um know you and Tommy talked about this on Pots of America only friends but what were your thoughts on uh Colorado and where it fits in with the New York results and what's to come so I think the Keros race against the get fits very squarely in the narrative coming out of New York we have a progressive insurgent candidate running against a long entrenched [30:49] democratic establishment figure and like in new york the democrat [30:53] is not a moderate per se. [30:56] But is, I mean, to get some member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus now more moderate than Keros and maybe more moderate than some of the voters of this district that Kamala Harris won by 56 points. And so this district, I know it's in Colorado. And so we think of it differently. It is just about as democratic as the three in New York. Yeah, that's very important. Harris won by more than 50 points in all of them. [31:18] And it speaks to the very real... [31:24] Anger that exists within the party towards the democratic establishment, the status quo, [31:30] And we talked about what we talked you and I in the New York, we talked about the New York races just last week, I think talked about the ways in which is in your manifest itself. And Kira's in a great race, she won by double digits. And so that fits in that narrative. [31:47] The other two races... [31:49] don't fit exactly in that narrative. What is true of the Weiser-Bennett race? I guess it is fair to say that Weiser is a progressive, but he's not that much more notably progressive than Bennett. And he is not an insurgent. He is the two-term attorney general of the state who worked for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.

[32:19] a couple decades now or almost two decades uh he was appointed in 2009 i believe to replace ken salazar um and but he had attacked him for not fighting hard enough against trump being part of an establishment that let trump win and then ran on all the things that weiser had done as a very good attorney general fighting back against trump with lawsuits and other sorts of things and so [32:42] But it's not – he's not a member of the DSA. It's different. He also was someone with – [32:46] He... [32:47] as good of name ID and probably more like recent depth of knowledge relationship with the voters than Bennett. Cause he's the attorney, he's a high profile attorney general in the state and Bennett's been in Washington. Um, and then the root now Shannon bird race, um, [33:00] is interesting and kind of speaks to how progressive candidates, I think will win in these frontline districts if the running is wrong. [33:07] Rutnell did not run to the left. No, he ran to the center. He ran to the center. He even denounced his own form of veganism. [33:15] But he did attack her. Unlike Tallarico, he really was a vegan. Yes, he actually was a vegan. He was a PETA activist in one of the top farm districts in the country and has... [33:27] Walked away from that. He sort of walked away from Medicare for All also. Yes, and being a DSA member. But where he went after, which is I think also interesting to note, was where he went after Byrd was on ICE because Byrd had had a vote or two in the state legislature that suggested. I think it was like state cooperation. ICE cooperations, yes. It wasn't like she was endorsing ICE or wearing ICE t-shirts, but that was a major issue in the race. And so these are all different.

[33:57] You really don't want to be, particularly in the Wiser and Kyrus race, you really don't want to be a longtime Democratic establishment figure. [34:07] Like that, like you were vulnerable in a way, but you've never been before. And that the voter... [34:12] Anger at the establishment. [34:15] And specifically the fact that the establishment has not done enough to improve the lives of working people in this country or enough to beat back Donald Trump and Republicans is probably, at least what the primaries are telling us, probably even more powerful than anger at Democrats for being too centrist or too moderate. [34:38] Yes, yes. I think the issue that's... [34:44] In the Bennett race, in the Routanil race, in some of the other ones we're seeing, like that is a factor that is a factor that is uniting all of this anti-establishment fervor. The ideological thing is hard to parse because it's talked about one way by the pundits analyzing the race, and I think it's viewed by voters in a different way. Yeah. [35:06] And I think a big issue in a lot of these races is obviously – [35:10] Israel and Gaza. Yes. And it's played itself in different ways. It was it was obviously a central part of Kyrgios race and her political identity and her entry into politics was because of her views on Israel and Gaza. And it does represent the issue where there's the greatest distance between the party establishment.

[35:28] and the voter. [35:29] And particularly the Democratic primary voter and the most active Democratic primary voters. And I think that issue is ideological. It's also a litmus test of sorts. [35:37] in the sense that it says if you were unwilling to, in the minds of voters, [35:42] Call what everyone is seeing with their eyes. [35:46] genocide or to react to it in the right way. It says something about who you are and who you stand for. And so like, is it, [35:55] I think it's too easy to say that it's like just – people want to say it's all about being more progressive than being not progressive and it's more complicated than that. It's also, I think, more complicated than being just like who's a fighter. [36:06] You definitely want to be a fighter. Not being a fighter is bad. There aren't a lot of people waving the white flag who are winning these primaries or in elections in general, but it – [36:18] It just... [36:19] I always find myself struggling with this because it's the conversation that [36:23] is more complicated and dynamic than the terms in which we generally try to have the talk about it and sort of how it works. Because when people say – [36:33] moderate, liberal, progressive. There's like an umbrella over all the issues. And in reality, it's issue by issue for different voters and in different parts of the country and in different races. Right. Because these aren't moderates who are losing with the exception of Goldman against Lander. [36:47] And the issue where Golden was most moderate was Israel. But Espyat, not a moderate. Not a moderate. To get, not a moderate. No, but been there a while. Yes. There's a generational element to this, too. Coming attractions, you see AOC endorsed Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. So there's the Michigan primary, where obviously the Senate race is the marquee race. I believe there's also like a House race there as well.

[37:17] a primary challenge. There's a few more. Do you know who the other is? Yeah, there's Debbie Wasserman Schultz against Elijah Manley and apparently Luther Campbell, formerly of Two Live Crew, which I did not realize until I read the New York Times story of it. Yes. She's not... [37:32] She is running in a district that's not hers because it was redrawn. So it's a little bit more like the Al Green and Julie Johnson losses earlier this cycle. Yeah. Stephen Lynch in Massachusetts. [37:42] Steven Lynch in Massachusetts. Been there forever. Ed Markey in Massachusetts. Yep. John Larson in Connecticut. [37:49] Wesley Bell, who beat Cori Bush two years ago. This is not a generational one. This is more of a modern progressive one. But Cori Bush is now – and he won in large part because of APEC spending in that race. He was their candidate. And so Cori Bush is now running for her seat again. That's won in Missouri, which comes up in August, I believe. So there is plenty of time for panic and overly hot takes and un-nuanced takes about all these things going forward. Can't wait. [38:19] . [38:24] Pod Save America is brought to you by Blinds.com. There's a version of your home you haven't lived in yet, where the light behaves just as you want, where the rooms feel finished, where you sleep until you decide to wake up, not when the sun does. Blinds.com has spent 30 years making it easy. [38:36] to find the perfect fit. With over 25 million windows covered and 50,000 five-star reviews, you can feel confident you're in good hands. Whether you want to go full DIY, bring in a licensed embedded pro to handle measure and install, or land somewhere in between, you're always in control. They make it simple to choose the level of support that works best for you. With flexibility every step of the way, need help picking the right style, book a free consultation with one of the Blinds.com's award-winning design experts. No pushy salespeople, no awkward in-home visits, just real advice on your schedule. They'll even ship samples to your door fast and free. Choose from a huge variety of style options

[39:06] everything is backed by Blinds.com's 100% satisfaction guarantee because at Blinds.com, the only thing they treat better than Windows is you. [39:13] We love Blinds.com. We have great blinds from Blinds.com in our office. It was so sunny in the afternoons. We'd get really hot in there. You couldn't see your screens. So we got Blinds.com. We have these automatic window shades that are perfect. And it was so easy. We walked out of our office for an hour or two, come back. Done. Amazing. And right now, Blinds.com is giving our listeners an exclusive $50 off when you spend $500 or more. Just use code CROOKED at checkout. Limited time offer. Rules and restrictions apply. See Blinds.com for details. [39:39] Pots of America is brought to you by Sleep Me. When was the last time you went to bed before midnight without scrolling? Doom scrolling, the latest news cycle, keeps your brain buzzing and worse, it grazes your core body temperature. A body that's too warm cannot fall into a deep, restorative sleep. You're not just mentally exhausted, your body never actually recovered from the day. The fix is simple. [39:58] lower your bed temperature. Enter ChiliPad 2.0, the water-based mattress topper that actively controls your bed temperature from 55 to 115 degrees all night long. No new mattress, no renovation. It fits over what you already have. 115 degrees, just going to sous vide yourself all night long? Anyway, ChiliPad 2.0 actively cools or warms your bed using water, and the water is key here. ChiliPad uses actively chilled water to cool the bed, actually pulling heat away from your body.

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[42:02] said that Republicans ignore... [42:05] or mock the election of DSA candidates and progressive candidates at their peril. He said, quote, they campaign as anti-establishment very smartly. They're not really even campaigning on Trump. He gets a mention, but they're very much like the Tea Party, like old Breitbart. They're going against the Democratic establishment. The reason we have problems is not Trump. It's the people that should be stopping Trump are actually co-opted by him. It's very sophisticated and it clearly resonates. What do you think about that? [42:32] I think – I mean it's like an overly facile, self-serving – I mean basically what he's saying is look how smart these people are. They're doing exactly what I did. [42:41] 10 years ago, 15 years ago. And he's like a populist, you know. [42:45] Yeah, I mean, sort of, yeah. Well, no, I think – [42:49] With Bannon. [42:50] He's a populist in that in all the wrong ways and all the like xenophobic, terrible ways. But he's also a genuine populist on economic stuff that has he has like always pushed Trump to actually do populist economic shit. And then Trump has never done it. Yes. He I think he genuinely believes that populism is the best politics. [43:08] Yes. For the Republican Party. I that I that I agree with, which is why he has been so skeptical of big tech. I mean, he takes a lot of money from billionaires for populist, but but his argument was for a populist. [43:21] for MAGA to be a populist working class movement. And he sees Democrats trying to do something similar and being willing to take on their own in order to do it. So I think it's notable. On the subject of DSA momentum, I don't know if you saw Axios had a report on Wednesday that Kamala Harris has quietly been reaching out to Zoran Mamdani, AOC, and the leaders of the Uncommitted Movement, indicating that she's making plans potentially for a 2028 run. And perhaps

[43:51] reinvention. What did you think about that? So... [43:56] We are getting more and more evidence that Kamala Harris is seriously thinking about running. [44:00] If you'd asked me six months ago, I would have bet a fair amount of money that she was not going to run. But she keeps doing things that suggest... [44:07] She's at least seriously thinking about it. You and I have heard lots of rumors of her talking to all kinds of different people in the party. [44:13] I think if she is running and is being smart about it, there is no path for her to the nomination that does not involve a massive pivot away from Biden's. [44:25] Israel and Gaza policy. [44:26] And so having some conversations about how you would do that and how that would be received [44:32] by people in the community, particularly when she clearly did not engage with that community enough to fully understand the power of the issue. [44:40] in 2024 is what you would be doing. Will that work? Will she be able to pull it off? That was going to be my next question. How much credibility do you think she gets? I think it would depend on how she delivers it. And how... If she were to do it, she cannot be... [44:57] She cannot hedge her words. She cannot worry about Joe Biden's reaction to her words. She cannot worry about whether she's going to anger people in the national security world or the Biden security team. She has to do what... [45:08] What people around her were saying during the campaign was this legitimate... [45:13] very real. [45:15] empathy for [45:17] The Palestinians and anger at the Israelis that she was never willing to say out loud on the campaign and made a bunch of, I think, really tactical mistakes. Like in the end, the idea that you couldn't give one slot at the convention.

[45:31] to a speaker who would talk about [45:33] Yeah. About what was going on in Gaza is a just seems so crazy now in hindsight. So it would have to be for her to pull it off. It would have to be. [45:43] Just as I mean, it has to be with a level of authenticity and visceral emotion and legitimate anger at what happened before and that. [45:54] You could not miss it, but you can't focus group it. You can't hem your words. You can't worry about Joe Biden. I also think two other things. You have to own some responsibility around that. 100%. Like it has to be like, and not, well, I was vice president now, so I wasn't supposed to say anything. Like a genuine responsibility. [46:11] Like I was wrong or I made a mistake or I came to this too late. Like, [46:15] And [46:17] I think that it, like... [46:19] She has to demonstrate that she... [46:22] actually cares about this and it's actually angered her and she's actually regretful for how it was handled and not that she's doing all the things she needs to do to check the boxes to become the Democratic nominee that the Democratic electorate wants right now, which is like always my concern about her. You know, it's like I want to I want to know if Kamala Harris wants to run again. [46:45] why she wants to run again and why she wants to be president. And you can already tell, like, since she lost, since the campaign, she's, like, trying out a little, like, well, I'm sort of an outsider. I've always been an outsider. And it's like, yeah, there's anti-establishment fervor right now. I'm going to jump on that train. That looks good. And I'm not saying that this is exactly...

[47:06] what she believes, because I don't know. But it could very easily come across like that. And my advice to her would be, what do you actually want to run for president? What do you really believe? What's really angering you about the last four years? Talk about that. And if people, you know, if people believe that, and people find that persuasive, then you'll be the nominee. And if not, they won't. But like, you just don't don't look at the the Democratic [47:36] I got to get all the pieces together and this is what I have to say and do. And if I press all the right buttons, then suddenly I'll get the nomination. You know, I just that's and I that's goes for any candidate for sure. But I think she has a particular challenge there. Can I tell you something that I think you're going to find perhaps very disturbing and potentially exciting? [47:54] If we follow by the calendars of the previous cycles, one year from right about now will be the first year. [48:02] Democratic primary debate. Oh, it's getting nauseous. Yeah. It usually happens in the summer of the year prior to the election. [48:12] It's going to be so bad. [48:14] I'm just telling you. [48:15] I feel like the opening skirmishes of the great democratic war of 2028 have already begun. And so far they haven't been going well. [48:25] I'm still like, we have just, this is like the fucking tip of the iceberg. It is going to get so, it's going to make 2020 look like a fucking field day. I'm not sure about that. I'm not sure. I'm not saying it's going to be great. I'm not saying it's going to be great. I think the, obviously there have to be points of doubt.

[48:41] difference in discussion and debate. And those will be painful because a lot of times people agree on so much that you really are, um, you know, you're not going to be a big fan of the, you know, you're not going [48:49] slicing the salami so thin to get to that difference. I mean, as it was with the Obama other than the Iraq war on all the issues with Obama and Clinton, like we agreed on a lot of stuff. And so, um, [49:00] Like policy stuff, like approach politics was very different, but on policy stuff, you know, you're fighting over the individual mandate was the main point of dispute. Point Hillary on that one. Yes. And so. [49:13] We'll see. We won't have to talk about this now. You have a plane to catch. I have a lot to say about the poll, so we'll keep going. We'll keep going. Speaking of the fall elections, we are now just four months out. [49:21] from these midterm elections. Forget about the primary debates. And our America 250 gift, Dan, was a full round of Times-Siena Senate polls that were released Wednesday morning, which showed Democrats effectively tied, but definitely not ahead, in the effort to flip Republican-held Senate seats. In Alaska, they have Mary Peltola just two points behind Dan Sullivan. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown is down three to John Husted. In Iowa, Josh Turek is two behind Ashley Hinson. [49:51] over the last few days. They have Graham Plattner up two points on Susan Collins and James Tallarico and Ken Paxton tied. The only clear leader [49:58] is Democrat Roy Cooper in North Carolina. They have him up seven on Michael Watley. There were also new Fox News polls out this week that have Plattner down three to Susan Collins and Turek up four on Hinson in Iowa. Any big picture thoughts before we get into some of the specific races? These polls are a somewhat painful reality check of just how tough the Senate map is. When you dig into these, as everyone knows, we've got to win Maine.

[50:28] of Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Ohio. These are [50:33] Very Republican states. Trump won those four by at least double digits. When you look on the insides of the polls, majorities in all those states think the Democratic Party is too far to the left. This is a group of people we think about how much 53 percent, 53 percent too far to the left, 8 percent too far to the right, 35 percent. [50:51] Neither. Not great. You like we talk about how angry people are at Trump. His approval rating in these states is all pretty good, like low 40s in most cases in the they Republicans lead the generic ballot in all these states by at least six points. [51:07] They want Republican control of Senate by at least six points. Except in Maine. [51:11] Accepted Maine. Let's put Maine aside in North Carolina. Yeah, that's right. We should talk about that because Roy Cooper is doing well, but the generic ballot in North Carolina is also D plus six, I believe, which is crazy. North Carolina is performing like a pretty Democratic state in this environment. It's D plus six. They want Democrats to control the Senate. It is. I mean, people are talking a lot about how great Roy Cooper is doing. He's doing great. He's a great candidate, but he's actually only overperforming the generic ballot by one point. [51:41] Republican states are overperforming the generic ballot by three to eight points in some cases. Yeah. [51:49] The point is... [51:52] We have a shot in all of these races, and that is something that you could not have said six to eight months ago, but – [51:58] It is very hard. And it's also, other than in Texas, Republicans have actually nominated fine candidates. Ashley Hinson, John Husted are generic Republicans. And Dan Sullivan's like a...

[52:08] maybe a little bit worse than generic Republican, but basically a generic Republican. We have great candidates. [52:13] But is it going to be enough? So – [52:15] This is what I was getting at a little earlier, is my take, my overall take on these polls. And again, [52:21] New York Times polls aren't perfect, but they are as close to perfect as we have. You know, they were off again in 2024. But like, again, the purpose of a poll is not to nail the exact result. I know that's that might sound shocking, but it's true. It gets you within the ballpark. And in terms of within the ballpark, no one does it better than The New York Times, which is why we take these seriously and dig in on them. So my take overall, if you set all the candidates aside. [52:46] We have done a great job persuading people, even people in red states, that Donald Trump is doing a terrible job as president. [52:52] I know you said like 43, it's 43%. That's not a great approval rating in red states. Like I would have, you know, that's, that's pretty bad. And I know now we're getting used to because some of these national polls have them in like the high thirties. We're getting used to that. But like for any 43 is bad. It's enough to lose, right? If he was running in those states, we have not done a good job persuading people that [53:14] the Republicans in Congress are the primary reason that Trump has been able to make their lives worse. [53:20] That's that's my my larger takeaway, because you would think that the Republican I mean, and the generic ballot. Right. Like if you take the candidates out of it, because people want to talk about like this candidates more strong and stronger, this one's weaker. And if you take all the candidates out of it, you just look at, you know, who do you want to control Congress? Yes. That question, the voters, which they did. The generic ballot is just.

[53:40] Very positive for Republicans in most of these red states, even as Donald Trump's approval rating in those same states is well under 50%. [53:50] And that's what I why do you think that is? Because people don't like Democrats like these. All these candidates are doing great. [53:58] They are outperforming. Except Plattner. [54:03] All the candidates in the four red states. Yes, yeah, yeah. I'm going to put Roy Cooper, Plattner aside. Okay, great. We're only talking about these for now. And... [54:11] I'd actually put Texas aside in a little bit here, but in Alaska, Iowa, Texas. [54:15] In Ohio. Yeah, that's a good model. That's a good group. They are – these are very Republican states. [54:23] In Iowa and Ohio, the hardest part here is where Trump has lost ground is mostly with younger voters and [54:31] And Latino voters. [54:32] Thank you. [54:33] And these are very white, very old states. They are whiter than the national average. They are older than the national average. And so there's just less – the voters who are leaving Trump and coming to our side – [54:44] There's fewer of them, and it's a more static electric. Alaska is more confusing. Alaska is not actually a white state, but it obviously has a very – [54:52] low Latino and black population as a native population, which just is a little bit different. Texas is interesting because Texas is a majority minority state. [55:01] and has a huge Latino vote, which is why Tallarico is tied in that race. Though I was surprised in Texas that the generic ballot is still Republican plus six.

[55:12] If most of the gains are younger voters and Latino voters, because Texas has plenty of both of those. Yeah, I mean, it's it would it's it's six in the state that Trump won by. [55:24] 13. Oh, okay. Okay. I forgot that he won by that much. Yeah. In every one of these states, Trump won by at least 11 points. Right. Right. [55:40] Pod Save America is brought to you by Wild Alaskan Company. The difference between low and high quality seafood is enormous, but it's also one of those things that's tough to accurately assess while you're in the grocery store. Wild Alaskan Company offers the best way to get wild caught high quality seafood delivered to your door on your schedule. Each Wild Alaskan box comes with individually portioned fillets, vacuum sealed, easy to prep and great for any meal no matter how quick or elevated. All fish is quick frozen fresh from the Alaskan waters, which helps lock in freshness, texture, flavor and key nutrients like omega-3s. It's fish you can trust with no GMOs, antibiotics or other additives. Every... [56:09] Order supports sustainable harvesting and Alaskan fishermen whose history is tied to the region in practice. I love Wild Alaskan Company. It's great. You get a box. It's frozen, but, you know, it was frozen fresh. And so you get it. And then when you're ready to have fish, let's have fish. You take it out, you put it in the fridge. [56:27] It's a frost and the next day, boom, at dinner, you can make some great fish and it's a great, great thing to make a part of your routine. I really enjoyed the salmon and a bunch of other fish. Wild Laskin Company is so confident that their fish is the best that they offer a 100% satisfaction and money back guarantee. So you can try your first box risk free.

[56:43] Go to wildalaskan.com for $35 off your first order of premium wild-caught seafood. [56:48] That's wildalaskan.com slash cricket for $35 off your first order. Thanks to Wild Alaskan Company for sponsoring this episode. [56:55] Hey, so listen, whether you're in the States, across the pond, or somewhere on the other side of the world, we love that you tune in to Crooked for US News. But did you know we also have a UK news show? Yes, that's right. It's called Pod Save the UK. Pod Save the UK is a no bullshit, unabashedly progressive conversation about politics focused on the issues that matter most to the people of Britain. With all the changes in our government, including the fun revolving door of prime ministers we have here, there's always lots to talk about. [57:25] to journalists, politicians, experts, comedians and activists. We've had great comedians on as well, like Rosie Jones, Stuart Lee, Aisling B. We've also had Tommy Vitor on, who may be our boss. We still don't know. We're not quite clear on who our boss is. I thought it might be Tommy Vitor. I thought it might be Jon Favreau. [57:44] I don't know if it's John Lovett. It's hard to say. It's not clear to us who our bosses are. Some of our listeners call us irreverent, but not stupid. I object to that. I'm deeply stupid. It doesn't sound too bad. So look, come check us out. Come join us. Pod Save the UK every Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts. [58:03] Let's stay on those three, Iowa, Alaska, Ohio. [58:10] One thing on Alaska we should note is that Nate Cohn wrote like a separate thing on why the methodology and the Alaska sample might be a little weird and different. And we're not going to nerd out on that. But the upside is the Alaska results could...

[58:23] be actually better than it appears here. Iowa and Ohio, I think, more fit the issue with... It's just white voters everywhere. But I do think what's notable is... [58:36] We have all of our candidates in those states, like you said, are outrunning the generic ballot. So the Democrats are viewed, the Democratic candidates are viewed as less extreme than the national party, and they're more liked than average. And the Republican candidates in those states, though, are also have a higher favorability rating than average. So I do think in those three states especially. [58:58] So it's Dan Sullivan, John Husted and Ashley Hinson, who's also in Congress. She's not a senator, but she's a rep. I think like there's a lot of there's a lot of work to be done on pinning the last couple of years of Donald Trump on those three incumbents who are in Washington. We are in an anti-establishment, anti-incumbent mood. Those people have been voting for Trump, voting for and helping Trump 100 percent, not stopping him. So it feels like there's just a lot of work to be done there. Is that what you agree? [59:28] I would say that it's tricky because what are you moving the, like in doing that, [59:34] The question is interesting. You're trying to find in those states, according to these polls, there are a bunch of... [59:41] Trump disapprovers. [59:43] don't like Donald Trump, who are nonetheless inclined to vote for a Republican candidate for Senate. [59:50] And I think those are the people that you want to get. Yeah, I agree with that. The thing that is the generic ballot is interesting in this race, in these races. The question that's more interesting, which kind of lines up the generic ballot, but is who do you want to control the Senate?

[1:00:04] Right. And Republicans have a big advantage on that. It's basically akin to the generic ballot. It's 11.00. [1:00:09] in Alaska. [1:00:10] They didn't ask the generic ballot question in Alaska because there's only one member of Congress. So they just asked about that race. And that's not, I think, immediately transferable to the political environment because it's a known quantity. Right. In Nick Begich there. But it. [1:00:21] you know, that is hard. Like they're going to make the race be about, you vote, a vote for Mary Paltola is a vote to make Chuck Schumer and a bunch of, [1:00:28] and I'm DSA people or whatever in charge of the Senate. Yeah. And so you need 11, you need 11% of them to say, um, [1:00:35] No, we will take Mary Pantone anyway. Like, that's hard. I think Ohio is indicative of the larger challenge here, which is Sherrod Brown has a plus eight favorable rating in a state that Trump won by 11. [1:00:47] A majority of Ohioans, [1:00:50] Do not think that Sherrod Brown is too far to the left. [1:00:54] although a majority of Ohioans think the Democratic Party is too far to the left. [1:00:59] if the goal is to not be a typical Democrat, Sherrod Brown has fucking nailed it. Yep. He is like, [1:01:05] He has a relationship with the voters. They like him. They think he's different than the Democrats. They hate. And he hasn't moderated his views on anything, by the way. No. Like he was – [1:01:13] Just at our house doing a fundraiser a couple of weeks ago, and he sounds exactly the same as he has for the last several decades. Well, now he's down four. Great. Thanks for telling everyone that. But but what's interesting is if you compare the results of this poll to the exit poll of the Ohio Senate race in twenty twenty four. [1:01:32] He is doing exactly the same as he was in that race.

[1:01:35] Exactly. His percentage of the white non-college vote, which is a majority of the basically half the vote in Ohio, is exactly the same. And he's doing no better. [1:01:46] than Kamala Harris did essentially nationally with that. But he's getting 36%. What do we do about that? I mean, this is why Ohio is such a hard fucking state. [1:01:56] Now, can he convince some like there are places where he can make gains, he can make gains with black voters and that's that you can jack up black turnout, he can do better with younger like there are places to get there. But this is why he's down three. And this is why these states are so hard, because even though he is well liked, he is not extreme. [1:02:14] people [1:02:15] He is not getting more votes than he did four years ago, two years ago. That's the hard part about running Sherrod Brown. Two years later, you're going to need some people who voted for Houston to either stay home or voted for Bernie Moreno over Sherrod Brown to either change their vote or stay home. And that's not that's not super easy. He was the difference is and this is one of the reasons these polls sort of brought me back down to earth in a serious way is that. [1:02:35] Two years ago, he was running in a presidential electorate, which is obviously going to be harder for a Democrat in a state like Ohio. I guess I assumed that a midterm electorate would be better for Democrats than it is in these polls. And I always thought that Sherrod's chance, and I still do, that Sherrod's chance to win this time versus last time is the fact that he's just going to be running in a different electorate where there's fewer non-college educated white voters who turn out to vote in the midterm than there are in a presidential.

[1:03:05] is Ohio is an older white non-college turnout state, and those people voted a higher rate. And as Nate Cohen pointed out in his analysis of the polls, [1:03:13] A lot of the voters who have left Trump don't vote in midterms. [1:03:16] Right. [1:03:17] And that is going to be more true in a state like Ohio, which is just a – That's interesting. [1:03:23] Ohio is just this state that because this seems crazy to people who've only been watching politics for the last couple of presidential elections, but prior to that, it was the election, the state that decided the presidency in basically every election. And it has been registered and organized within an inch of its life. And one reason why it was felt hard for Obama was we always felt like we could do best in states that have large, unregistered populations, potential Democrats. [1:03:47] North Carolina, [1:03:49] Florida. Texas. That was a dream about Texas over the years. And Ohio just had – there were no new votes to get. Yeah. [1:03:56] Young people were leaving, and so it's a hard thing. Can he still win it? [1:04:01] Absolutely, he can. But I think it just speaks to how, like why this is... [1:04:07] Hard. It's doable. [1:04:10] It's doable in all these states, but these are horror states. And by the way, it's why North Carolina and Texas are states that not just this cycle, but many cycles into the future, Democrats just have to win at some point. Because you don't run into the same older white voters and no new voters issue in those states because so many people have been moving to them over the last decade. They're becoming more diverse, becoming younger. And so on paper, it's.

[1:04:38] They should be states that Democrats have a better chance in than places like Ohio and Iowa long term, long term. I am interested in why the generic ballot in North Carolina is so good. Well, it is. Think about it this way. It's a state that Trump won by two points, I think. [1:04:55] I think two points. Yeah. It was very close. He barely, he only won it by less than a point in 2020. Yeah. And so if you think that the generic ballot is plus seven or eight nationally, you, [1:05:06] That kind of gets you to a plus six. Yeah. Yeah. And so there's, and that's Roy Cooper. There is just, you know, he's just, [1:05:12] trucking through and not really getting any national attention and the race is kind of quiet and it's benefiting him. That's it's probably a state where getting attention is a bad thing. Well, he doesn't need attention because he has high name ID and voters like him. Right. Right. So he does not need to be doing TikTok dances. And then before we get to Maine, because Texas is sort of the opposite issue, which is [1:05:33] I do think in Texas, obviously James Hale-Rico is a strong candidate. We've talked about that a lot. And there's been a shift in the ballot, the generic ballot in Texas. But... [1:05:43] I think it's fair to say that Ken Paxton as the candidate and his problems and issues are hurting him in these polls. Yes, people... [1:05:52] It's a little bit like Maine. That's right. Yeah, that's right. It's the opposite. It's absolutely hurting. What is interesting is – [1:05:59] I find this impossible to believe, and it may be the factory that ends linear political television advertising forever, which is the Texas primary was the most expensive primary in history.

[1:06:09] Thank you. [1:06:10] Most ungodly amounts of money were spent by John Cornyn and Cornyn Super Pax. Most of that money was spent by the Cornyn side telling people about what a corrupt dickhead Ken Paxton is and only 38% of voters report hearing a lot about it. [1:06:25] And yet when you go to Maine, most voters have heard about Graham Plattner stuff. Nearly nine in 10 voters. [1:06:31] I've heard about Grand Platinum stuff. Now, [1:06:34] Part of this is Maine is a smaller state. [1:06:36] A much smaller state, and I think word travels fast there and people know, and I think there's opportunities there as well for Plattner. But I think it does say something about the gap between when there's a right-wing boogeyman and a left-wing boogeyman. Yeah, but it is. The thing is that the entire Republican Party infrastructure was spending hundreds of millions of dollars to tell people this about Ken Paxton, and people still haven't heard it. [1:07:02] Yeah. [1:07:03] So maybe they were doing it in the wrong way. I think you're right. I think it's TV stuff. It's like – and online – [1:07:09] We weren't talking about all of Ken Paxton's problems until it was... [1:07:13] you know, time to vote. It just didn't break through in the last year the way that Graham Plattner stuff broke through. Let's talk about Maine. So Democratic Party machinery is getting behind Plattner, grudgingly or otherwise. The Senate focused PAC majority forward. Is that what they're for its attack at on Susan Collins? Let's take a look and then we'll talk about the polling there. 30 years living the Washington, D.C. lifestyle changes people. Getting rich from

[1:07:43] Susan Collins is trying to keep it so senators can get rich playing the stock market. They're making millions of dollars. [1:07:52] While we can't even afford groceries and gas, we need to tell Susan Collins to stop the congressional stock trading. Okay. What do you think of that ad? What do you think of that message? And then your take on the polling in Maine. [1:08:06] I want you to do an Oscar style music. Play me off the stage if you have to go catch a flight because I honestly could talk about all these polls for five straight hours. I could do a podcast on every one of the polls. I think I'm good. It is about an hour to LAX. I should make it. Okay. All right. Just don't let me miss your flight because I will never hear the end of it from your wife. [1:08:26] She will know now. Yes. Yes. She will know. I don't think she listens to this podcast. That's true. What am I talking about? My wife might tell her. That is true. [1:08:36] Thank you. [1:08:37] So the logic of that ad, because it's always like this ad sucks or the message strategy of this ad is bad. Then you remember they're very smart people with a ton of data that you and I don't have who make these decisions. So I imagine the strategy of this ad is to say – [1:08:51] You have a lot of people who voted for Susan Collins in 2020 and in previous elections. Like Susan Collins overperformed. [1:08:57] She won by nine when Biden was winning Maine by almost nine. So like a 17, 18 point over performance into this is a stunning stat in 2008. She won by six. [1:09:07] 23 points when Obama was winning Maine by 17. Wow. She overperformed by 40 points. Oh, my God. So you've got a lot of people who voted for Susan Collins. So one way to do that is that you want to create a permission structure to them to say, I did this thing before. She's changed. So that's the argument.

[1:09:21] But if you look at the New York Times poll, and it's one poll, and it's a public poll, that seems like a bad strategy. [1:09:27] Because, you know, [1:09:28] In this poll, two-thirds of voters think that Susan Collins has good character and morals. [1:09:33] So it seems hard you're going to convince – even a lot of people who are voting for Grant Plattener think Susan Collins is a good person. [1:09:37] And so it seems hard that you're going to convince them all of a sudden that she is corrupt. [1:09:42] And it seems to me your better argument is you look at the fact that by a margin of, I think, 12 points, I'm just left on my head, Democrats, people vote, people in Maine want the Democrats to control the Senate. [1:09:52] And so there should never be an ad run that is not Susan Collins standing in the Oval Office holding that MAGA hat. Yeah, that's – [1:10:00] I mean, that's probably the more potent argument, right? Yeah. [1:10:05] Also... [1:10:05] I think that's why in... [1:10:07] You see... [1:10:08] Plattner was doing this in his primary night speech and elsewhere. The Brett Kavanaugh vote feels like a potent attack on him because it is a place where she was basically, you know, I'm doing what Trump wants me to do and it's going to be fine and then it's not fine. And that's probably an easier argument than, oh, this person that has that you think has brought home federal money to the state and has good characters, actually a crook.

[1:10:38] independents and a majority of all Mainers, which I believe is the appropriate term, think that Susan Collins would be too supportive of Donald Trump. [1:10:45] Yeah. [1:10:46] Like that, that is like, there is a, there is a world for the partner campaign that existed, uh, [1:10:51] A year ago with none of these revelations, I think it's happened where it's like we are we are running a campaign to change American politics and reshape the coalitions. This poll suggested those days are over. [1:11:02] Although there are some places where Planner is doing better than Sarah Gideon did, which is why he's winning and she lost by nine points. And also, like comparing this poll to the 2020 polls of where Sarah Gideon was at this point is not a great idea since those polls were all wrong. Yeah, that that drives me insane that you cannot even make home and say that poll was very, very, of course, the which you can the best you compare it to is the 2020. [1:11:24] exit polls because they actually exit pulled this race in 2020 and, [1:11:29] Graham Plattner, if you look at that, Graham Plattner is doing exactly one point better than Sarah Gideon did with... [1:11:38] White working class voters, which in Maine, where 98% of the voters are white, I believe, is just working class voters. [1:11:44] So and basically the same number that Kamala Harris did in 2024 with white with working class white voters, according to Catalyst data, where he is doing better, which is why he is winning. And Sarah Gideon was losing by a lot is he's doing much better with young voters and he's doing better with men. [1:11:59] Yeah. The challenge, the reason why he's not up by more is pretty simple. Susan Collins is getting 10% of Kamala Harris voters. [1:12:06] although Platner to his credit is getting 4% older white women, which is exactly what Ron Bramstein has been saying and said on this pod that his, his biggest concern is like, I know we all want it. Like I will stipulate that Graham Platner is being weighed down in some way, shape or form by the things that have come out like that. That is definitely true.

[1:12:22] He is underperforming – all these other Democrats are about to overperform the generic ballot. He is underperforming it by – [1:12:28] Eight points, I think. [1:12:29] Yeah, because it's 11, right? It's 11, so it's nine points. He's underperforming by nine points. That is significant. Now, the idea that we were going to beat Susan Collins by... [1:12:40] 10 points. [1:12:41] or even five points, I think probably was fanciful because there's definitely some grand plan underperformance. There is no question. I am not disputing it. There's definitely Susan Collins overperformance too. Well, yeah. And also because you would like, [1:12:51] His approval is 45-50, which isn't great, but is not... [1:12:55] It's not horrible, right? You can win at 45% approval, which is just look at Donald Trump. And hers is 48-51. Hers was much better. I was less surprised. Actually, I was surprised by both of them. I thought that his favorability... [1:13:07] might be worse after everything. And then I thought hers would, but I thought hers would be worse. 48, 51, this seems quite good. If you're an incumbent in an anti-incumbent wave and you've been there forever and you're as old as Susan Collins is, like that surprised me. There is this misreading of the polls where like they ask people not to compare Plattner and Collins on characters and morals. They just ask them if having good characters or good morals to describe them. So Susan Collins has these incredible numbers on... [1:13:37] you know, in the 60s on character and morals. And Plattner seems like his numbers are much lower, but they're still in the mid 40s. [1:13:44] yeah so he's getting 48 of the vote so there's like four percent of people who are voting for who don't think plattner necessarily has great character morals and are voting for him anyway there are

[1:13:56] 18% of people in some cases who think that Susan Collins is a good person are voting against her anyway. Yeah. I will also say that both Susan Collins... [1:14:04] and Graham Plattner are more popular in this poll than... [1:14:07] Janet Mills. Yeah. This is the other takeaway. Like, is it possible that like a John Baldacci or a Hannah Pingree, if they had run as a generic Democrat, would be doing better than Graham Plattner? Probably. Maybe. Maybe even probably. Maybe even probably. They chose not to. [1:14:24] They chose not to. In some cases, some of these candidates were encouraged not to by Chuck Schumer, according to some reports. [1:14:29] But this poll has a fair amount of evidence that Janet Mills would be doing worse than Grant Plattner, certainly not better than Grant Plattner. And the bigger thing is not just her favorability rating, because that's somewhat dragged down by Plattner people who don't like her. The bigger issue is that more than 8 in 10 main voters voted. [1:14:48] think the main economy is bad. I know those numbers. And when the economy is the number one issue in the election, she like she actually would be someone who was being like it would be as much a referendum on her as opposed to referendum on the Trump economy. And so that would be a very, very tough order. Yeah. No, I think, look, clearly the all of the revelations about Plattner have heard him and he has a lot of work to do. I don't think anything in this poll shows that, like, what's happened is fatal. [1:15:18] other revelations come out. Yes, yes, yes, yes. For sure. I do think if these, because then some people will argue, well, the Republicans haven't even spent all their money yet, making sure that everyone knows about everything that's come out already. On that, I would say,

[1:15:31] like most of the voters in this poll, what, 80% have heard about his problems and his issues. So like, I don't know that there's much more education to do on that front. I think what their hope has to be is that there's more stuff coming out on the Republican side that they can use. The thing that I worry more than the character and stuff and the moral stuff is that Plattner [1:16:01] So the ads, I think, would be more concerning. Susan Collins, very much people do not think she's extreme. Right. [1:16:08] Yeah, and it's going to be – that's not pushing on an open door on that. It is – it's much easier to say like, oh, well, she's just – just look at the record. She goes along with Trump and you don't like Trump. There you go. Just a vote for Susan Collins is a vote for Donald Trump's Senate. Just a vote for Susan Collins is a vote to confirm another Trump Supreme Court justice. A vote for Susan Collins is Trump. Trump just – it's like it's not that complicated. It should just be everything. Like do not – [1:16:29] Don't overthink this, people. Like you need a bunch of people who want the Democrats to control the Senate to vote for Grant Plattener. If you do that, you will win. Yep. All right. That's our show for today. Everyone have a happy 4th and a great holiday weekend. Tommy and Lovett will be back with a new show on Tuesday. [1:16:44] And I'll be back a week from Tuesday. Bye, everyone. Bye, everyone. Have a great Fourth.

[1:17:07] Hey, so listen, whether you're in the States, across the pond or somewhere on the other side of the world, we love that you tune into Crooked for US News. But did you know we also have a UK news show? Yes, that's right. It's called Pod Save the UK. Pod Save the UK is a no bullshit, unabashedly progressive conversation about politics focused on the issues that matter most to the people of Britain. With all the changes in our government, including the fun revolving door of prime ministers we have here, there's always lots to talk about. [1:17:37] Lots of fabulous guests to talk to. Journalists, politicians, experts, comedians and activists. We've had great comedians on as well, like Rosie Jones, Stuart Lee, Aisling B. We've also had Tommy Vitor on, who may be our boss. We're not quite clear on who our boss is. I thought it might be Tommy Vitor. I thought it might be Jon Favreau. [1:17:57] I don't know if it's John Lovett. It's hard to say. It's not clear to us who our bosses are. Some of our listeners call us irreverent, but not stupid. I object to that. I'm deeply stupid. It doesn't sound too bad. So look, come check us out. Come join us. Pod Save the UK every Thursday, wherever you get your podcasts.